Not Enough Meaning
We tend to find stories and patterns even when looking at sparse data
Illusion of validity
Description
A cognitive bias in which a person overestimates their ability to interpret and predict accurately the outcome when analyzing a set of data, in particular when the data analyzed show a very consistent pattern.
Illusion of validity in business decision
An HR manager consistently uses a specific set of interview questions and believes they are highly effective at predicting job success, despite a lack of empirical evidence correlating these questions with performance.
Illusion of validity in personal life decision
You are convinced you can predict winners in horse races after a few lucky guesses, ignoring overall poor performance.